Means, Motives & Opportunities

Uploaded on 2024-12-27 in TECHNOLOGY--Resilience, FREE TO VIEW

What cyber risks can your organization expect in 2025? We'll explore the factors that drive cyberattacks and the threats they will create in the new year.

You are probably familiar with the "means, motive, opportunity" triad from crime shows or courtroom dramas. In cyberattacks, the "means" are the tools at attackers' disposal.

Means

In 2025, hackers will continue to use proven methods like phishing, ransomware, and password cracking, but these will evolve. Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) will make phishing emails more convincing, while deepfakes will aid in creating realistic voice and video scams. AI will also mutate malware code, evading signature-based detection.

Advances in computing hardware will make password cracking faster and easier.

Cybercriminals are also becoming more organized, dividing tasks among specialized groups - those handling initial access, malware deployment, or ransom collection - creating economies of scale.

Lastly, people remain key vulnerabilities. Social engineering exploits human errors, such as clicking malicious links or falling for scams, making individuals unwitting tools in attacks.

Motive

Attackers’ motives are usually financial or political. Financial motives will remain strong, with ransomware extortion expected to reach record levels in 2025. Political motives include destabilizing societies, spreading disinformation, or undermining governments through fake media.

King Louis the Fourteenth of France famously had the phrase ultima ration regum cast on cannons - "the last resort of kings". Military goals are ultimately the outcome of political goals. For instance, a cyberattack could be launched on satellite communication systems to blind enemy forces. It has happened before and is very likely to happen again in the future.

Opportunity

Opportunities are external factors attackers exploit to advance their goals. Every organization presents a potential opportunity, but those with valuable assets, known vulnerabilities, or weaker defenses are especially attractive.

As a rule of thumb, crises and uncertainty create opportunities for cyberattacks. In 2025, geopolitical tensions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese expansionism, the Syrian government's collapse, and a leadership change in the country which simultaneously has the world's biggest economy and the world's most powerful armed forces, will provide fertile ground.

In the same vein, pandemics also indirectly heighten cyber risk. A new outbreak would create a polycrisis that attackers would exploit.

The Predictions

Given these factors, the following threats will likely dominate in 2025:

1. Top Attack Types
Ransomware, Data Leaks, and DDoS Attacks will remain the top threats, with attackers leveraging zero-day vulnerabilities and compromised credentials to gain system access.

2. Physical Systems Under Attack
Cyberattacks affecting physical infrastructure will increase due to their high return on investment for attackers. Defense and other critical infrastructure sectors like power, water, and telcos will be prime targets.

3. Fused Financial & Political Goals
Financial and political motives will get more mixed. North Korea will continue funding its political ambitions through financially motivated cyberattacks. Russia is expected to expand its use of cybercriminal gangs, blending criminal and state-sponsored activities to obscure its involvement.

4. Disinformation
Ongoing political tensions and likely political disruptions will be accompanied by a crescendo of disinformation, as nation-state attackers will try to sow discord and position themselves favorably in the public's perception.

5. Exploitation of Crises
Major crises will fuel phishing campaigns and other attacks. From potential disease outbreaks like mPox or avian flu, to wars, coups, and infrastructure failures, attackers will exploit public uncertainty and fear.

What You Should Do

In 2025, means, motives and opportunities will lead to an increase in cyber attacks, increasing cyber risk for organizations. But that does not mean that your organization is helpless.

To understand how you can mitigate those risks, find a partner with deep expertise in cybersecurity and a broad set of solutions that can engage in a conversation with you about your cybersecurity needs.

Kurt Thomas is Senior System Engineer at Fortra

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