Cyber Threat Forecast 2025 Part One

Uploaded on 2025-01-22 in INTELLIGENCE--International, FREE TO VIEW, INTELLIGENCE-Hot Spots-China

Cyber Threat Forecast 2025 - Part One - North America

Part 1 of a 4-part series that will forecast the international cyber threat landsape in 2025, beginning with North America, then India, Criminal / Hacktivist Activity, then Nation-State / Foreign Affairs.

North American Cyber Threat Landscape

With 2025 having kicked off with Donald Trump re-entering the White House as the 47th President of the United States, threat actors from opposing nation-states will likely leverage cyberspace in retaliation.

Additionally, due to supply chains, as well as President Trump hinting at the idea that Canada should join the US as the ‘51st state’, these cyber threats will also likely have a ripple effect further north.

As a result, both public and private sector organisations must prepare to prioritise risk management strategies to combat a variety of threat actor activities.

United States of America

Tump’s China Hawks To Confront Beijing

President Trump has established a cabinet consisting of China hawks that will likely result in increased tensions between Beijing and Washington for years to come. In 2025, this will likely transition into cyberspace by Chinese espionage actors seeking to collect intelligence on the diplomatic relations between the US and Taiwan as well as to gather data on the recently formed US-Japan-Philippines alliance with the US aiming to push back against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

With the imminent deadline of the ‘Made in China 2025’ programme on the horizon, Chinese nation-state-sponsored espionage and intellectual property (IP) theft pursuits will likely ramp up against the technology and manufacturing sectors with the Chinese government seeking to bring innovative technology to global markets.

These campaigns will likely be intensified with the Trump Administration intending to implement tariffs targeting imported Chinese technology products.

Chinese nation-state adversaries, such as Volt Typhoon, will also likely pivot to a more destructive posture by attempting to sabotage Western critical sectors. These attacks will likely carry the objective of pre-positioning cyber exploitation and attack capabilities within Western networks to prepare for future hostilities with the US and to disrupt communication infrastructure between Washington and East Asia during any future crisis.

Taiwan will likely remain a prime focus of Chinese IP theft to undermine the ‘Silicon Shield’ defensive strategy. However, the US technology sector will likely be caught in the crossfire of these IP extraction campaigns with the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) set to build its silicon chips in three factories currently under construction in Arizona following TSMC receiving a pledge in government subsidy as part of the 2022 Chips and Science Act.

Chinese nation-state threat actors will likely continue targeting network infrastructure of nations in the South China Sea region to collect intelligence on military exercises and national policy. With China’s ‘nine-dash-line’ claims being heavily criticised by the White House, Chinese espionage actors will likely target the US government and telecommunication sectors to gauge Washington’s foreign policy strategies. This cyber activity will likely be aggravated following the strengthened trilateral relations between the US, Japan, and the Philippines, with these states discussing key topics including the Taiwan Relations Act obligating Washington to provide weapons to defend Taipei as well as the Philippines and Japan being US defence treaty allies.

Iranian Sanctions Increasing Global Cyber Risk

Cyber espionage sponsored by the Iranian regime will likely seek to collect intelligence on US foreign policy regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) as well as to gauge the position of the US government’s support of Israel against Iran’s Axis of Resistance proxies throughout the Middle East.

This will also likely expand to include the US finance sector in retaliation to President Trump, who has voiced his intention to enforce further sanctions against Iran, mirroring the ‘maximum pressure’ policy that was applied during the previous Republican Party administration.

Cyber Threat Actors To Capitalise On Uncertainties Within NATO?

Based on statements leading up to the 2024 US presidential election, the Republican Party Presidency raises concerns about the future of US support for NATO and Ukraine. While it is unlikely that the US will abandon NATO under the administration, there is a realistic possibility that Europe could see the US shift focus domestically, leaving the continent to face off against Russia in a weakened condition both militarily and in cyberspace.

Russian cyber espionage will likely surge against US government networks throughout the early months of 2025 with Russian threat actors likely to gather intelligence on the Trump Administration’s intentions of ending the war in Ukraine.

Canada

US-China Tensions To Impact Canadian Companies?

The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (CCCS) recently disclosed that Chinese nation-state-sponsored threat actors have compromised at least 20 Canadian government networks over the past four years, with the objectives of espionage, IP theft, influence operations, as well as the repression of diaspora communities.

Due to the ongoing diplomatic strains between Canada and China, these cyber threat activities will continue to pose a threat to high-profile organisations and citizens alike. An example of the latter would be Chinese state actors likely to perform surveillance on advocates for Taiwanese and Hong Kong independence as well as Tibetan pro-democracy activists that are present within the Canadian borders.

However, due to the integration of critical infrastructure throughout North America, China’s increasingly disruptive cyber posture in response to rising tensions with the US, will likely impact Canada’s networks.

Further, Canada’s innovative research infrastructure, as well as economic tensions increasing based on bilateral trade, will also likely present motivation for Chinese espionage actors to target the country’s network infrastructure to bolster Beijing’s strategic objectives.

To Be Continued:

Image: MikeyGen73

Craig Watt is a Threat Intelligence Consultant at Quorum Cyber specializing in strategic and geopolitical intelligence.

You Might Also Read:

Trump 2.0: Cyberwarfare To Reach New Heights:

If you like this website and use the comprehensive 7,000-plus service supplier Directory, you can get unrestricted access, including the exclusive in-depth Directors Report series, by signing up for a Premium Subscription.