US Ready To Fight Hybrid War By 2030

The US Army’s new draft strategy for 2025 to 2040 expects enemies to attack ever more lethally in multiple domains, land, sea, air, space, and cyber online, while blurring the distinction between peace and war.

To meet these foes, the strategy says, the Army of the future must be much more mobile, with small teams that can fight like today’s large units, and do it in every domain of warfare, simultaneously.

The Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, or TRADOC, creates guides that the Army uses to draft field manuals and train troops for tomorrow’s fights.

Last month they released a draft of their newest “concept document” that lays out the Army’s best guess about the enemy of the future.

Titled Multi-Domain Battle: Evolution of Combined Arms for the 21st Century, 2025-2040, it repeats one key point over and over again: Adversaries will make life as difficult as possible for US troops by not declaring themselves to be the enemy, or, as the concept puts it, by “combining regular and irregular forces with criminal and terrorist enterprises to attack the Joint Force’s vulnerabilities while avoiding its strength.”

That idea is not entirely new. The world got a great glimpse of what modern, blended warfare looks like when thousands of little green men invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014.

“Adversaries have blurred the distinction between actions ‘below armed conflict’ and ‘conflict,’ enabling the achievement of strategic military objectives short of what the US traditionally considers ‘war,’” the document says.

The concept goes on to describe four other reasons the Army cannot successfully fight wars the way it has in the past:

1. The exponential speed of information technology. US forces can’t assume that they will have the best phones, drones, or computer hardware on the battlefield. As computers get smaller, cheaper, and more widely available, US tech advantages will disintegrate.

2. Warfare will be much more urban. Some 60 percent (conservatively) of the Earth’s population will live in cities in 2030, many in megacities with populations of more than 10 million. This is where adversaries will try to engage US forces, not in open fields or deserts where today’s Army and its enormous battle vehicles have the advantage.

3. The Internet will be a key aspect of the battlefield, not just in terms of trading cyber-attacks with enemy hackers but in the need to constantly and expertly shape global opinion about the conflict.

Troll armies spreading fake news and disinformation, coupled with enough social-media traffic to overwhelm open-source analysts, could “complicate the Army’s ability to gain and maintain an accurate, up-to-date, intelligence-driven understanding of the situation, as well as control of the information environment,” the document says.

4. Every bad guy becomes The Joker. The Army sees a rise of “Super-empowered individuals and small groups” who can “use access to cyberspace, space, and nuclear, biological, radiological, and chemical weapons of mass effects to change the battlespace calculus and redefine the conditions of conflict resolution.” Read that to mean: lone wolves and minuscule teams with the power to rival many of today’s nation-states.

Even the spread of personal phones and the Internet of Things will make US troops easier targets. “Unmanaged signatures will become a critical US vulnerability because the adversary’s forces will increasingly possess the ability to find and attack US and allied forces at strategic, operational, and tactical distances simultaneously,” the document says.

To fight in this environment, the US Army will move toward smaller, much more versatile, and more capable formations, somewhat like today’s special operations forces that can embark on a wide variety of missions.

These “semi-independent” formations won’t just be tasked with winning territory and holding it. They’ll have to do everything from flying drones (and defending against them) to shooting missiles deep into enemy territory (and getting the targeting data to do it) to outflanking the bad guys in cyberspace. And they’ll have to do it with less protection.

“Formations must maneuver semi-independently, without secured flanks, constant communications with higher headquarters, and continuous lines of communications,” the document says.

The “semi-independent” part is key. The Army still sees these smaller groups as connected to a much larger whole, perhaps even more so, but that doesn’t mean a return to large tank formations.

Nor does it mean that every tiny, mobile, Swiss-Army-knife formation will also carry an enormous missile battery. Rather, little teams will have to be able to access capabilities like drones and fire support from somewhere, but the capabilities themselves will likely be shared, similar to how people use Uber.

This idea of small, nimble, loosely connected nodes in sprawling networks fits well with what other services’ leaders have described as the future of the Navy and the Air Force.

It’s a future where every node become smaller, and where connections grow in number even as connectivity itself is challenged.

DefenseOne:

You Might Also Read:

Russian General Brags About Cyberwar Successes:

Cyber Warfare Opens A New Front Against Civilians:

How A Cyber Attack Transformed Estonia:

 

« Cyber Security Insurance
Where Should The Pentagon Focus In Cyberspace? »

CyberSecurity Jobsite
Perimeter 81

Directory of Suppliers

The PC Support Group

The PC Support Group

A partnership with The PC Support Group delivers improved productivity, reduced costs and protects your business through exceptional IT, telecoms and cybersecurity services.

Directory of Cyber Security Suppliers

Directory of Cyber Security Suppliers

Our Supplier Directory lists 7,000+ specialist cyber security service providers in 128 countries worldwide. IS YOUR ORGANISATION LISTED?

DigitalStakeout

DigitalStakeout

DigitalStakeout enables cyber security professionals to reduce cyber risk to their organization with proactive security solutions, providing immediate improvement in security posture and ROI.

NordLayer

NordLayer

NordLayer is an adaptive network access security solution for modern businesses — from the world’s most trusted cybersecurity brand, Nord Security. 

Practice Labs

Practice Labs

Practice Labs is an IT competency hub, where live-lab environments give access to real equipment for hands-on practice of essential cybersecurity skills.

MadSec Security

MadSec Security

MadSec Security is a leading consulting company whose expertise are information and cyber security.

Cybersecurity Tech Accord

Cybersecurity Tech Accord

The Cybersecurity Tech Accord promotes a safer online world by fostering collaboration among global technology companies.

Pluribus One

Pluribus One

Pluribus One develops customized solutions and other data-driven applications to secure your business and your devices.

ACROS Security

ACROS Security

ACROS Security is a leading provider of security research, real penetration testing and code review for customers with the highest security requirements.

Labs/02

Labs/02

Labs/02 is a seed-stage incubator with a mission to advance cutting-edge technology in innovative areas including AI, deep learning, autonomous transportation, and smart cities.

Hawk Network Defense

Hawk Network Defense

HAWK.io is the First Fully Automated, Multi-Tenant, Cloud-Based, MDR Service Company.

Nexum

Nexum

Nexum takes a comprehensive approach to security, from detecting and preventing network threats, to equipping you with the information, tools and training you need to effectively manage IT risk.

CoursesOnline

CoursesOnline

CoursesOnline.co.uk is a database listing IT security courses from providers across the UK.

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)

Huntington Ingalls Industries is America’s largest military shipbuilding company and a provider of professional services to partners in government and industry.

Prima Cyber Solutions (PCS)

Prima Cyber Solutions (PCS)

Prima Cyber Solutions is focused on protecting your business from the massive and devastating impacts that cyber-attacks may cause.

North East Business Resilience Centre (NEBRC)

North East Business Resilience Centre (NEBRC)

The North East Business Resilience Centre is a non-profit organisation here to support businesses in the North East of England in protecting themselves from cyber crimes and fraud.

NetBlocks

NetBlocks

NetBlocks is a global internet monitor working at the intersection of digital rights, cyber-security and internet governance.

Virtual Infosec Africa (VIA)

Virtual Infosec Africa (VIA)

Virtual InfoSec Africa (VIA) is a wholly-owned Ghanaian company specializing in information security and cybersecurity solutions and services.

US Department of State - Bureau of Cyberspace & Digital Policy

US Department of State - Bureau of Cyberspace & Digital Policy

The Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy leads and coordinates the Department’s work on cyberspace and digital diplomacy to encourage responsible state behavior in cyberspace.

ConductorOne

ConductorOne

ConductorOne is building the identity security platform for the modern workforce.

Edera

Edera

Edera is changing the way containers are run and secured, making isolation a reality and fundamentally transforming computing in the process.