Were Brussels Terrorists Trying To Build 'dirty bomb'

Nuclear policy experts can seem like Cassandra, constantly prophesizing apocalyptic futures. In case you haven't noticed, we don't live in a Mad Max world devastated by nuclear war. Terrorists have not blown up New York with a makeshift nuclear bomb. We haven't bankrupted ourselves, despite the trillions of dollars spent on Cold War weapons.

Cassandra's curse, however, was not that she was wrong, but that no one believed her. I don't know a single nuclear expert who thinks that the threat of nuclear terrorism is shrinking. I don't know a single one who thinks that the actions taken by world leaders at this week's Nuclear Security Summit are enough. We are fearful. And you should be, too.

Chills went down a lot of experts' spines last month when we saw the news that the Brussels bombers, the ISIS terrorists who blew up the airport and attacked the metro, were secretly videotaping a Belgian nuclear official. This official worked at a facility that had radiological material that terrorists could use for a "dirty bomb." We do not know if they were filming him or his family, if there was a kidnap plot in motion, or what their exact plans were. But this is not some Hollywood fantasy. This is real. A nuclear terrorist event may be closer than you think.

What are the risks? First, that some terrorists could steal a complete nuclear weapon, like SPECTRE in the James Bond thriller, "Thunderball." This is hard, but not impossible. The key risk is that the outside terrorists get insider help: For example, a radical jihadist working at a Pakistan weapon storage site. Or the Belgian base just outside Brussels where we still stash a half-dozen nuclear weapons left over from Cold War deployments. Or the Incirlik air base in Turkey where we keep an estimated 50 weapons just 200 miles from the Syrian border.

Second, terrorists could steal the "stuff" of a bomb, highly enriched uranium or plutonium. They cannot make this themselves -- that requires huge, high-tech facilities that only nations can construct. But if they could get 50 or 100 pounds of uranium -- about the size of a bag of sugar -- they could construct a crude Hiroshima-style bomb. ISIS, with its money, territory and global networks, poses the greatest threat to do this that we have ever seen. Such a bomb brought by truck or ship or FedEx to an urban target could kill hundreds of thousands, destroy a city and put the world's economy and politics into shock.
            
Third, there is the possibility of a dirty bomb. Frankly, many of us are surprised this has not happened already. I spoke to Jon Stewart on his show 15 years ago about the danger. This is not a nuclear explosion unleashed by splitting atoms, but simply a conventional explosive, like dynamite, laced with radioactive material, like cesium or strontium. A 10-pound satchel of dynamite mixed with less than 2 ounces of cesium (about the size of a pencil eraser) could spew a radioactive cloud over tens of square blocks.

No one would die, unless they were right next to the explosion. But the material would stick to the buildings. Inhaling just a speck would greatly increase your risk of getting cancer. You could go into the buildings, but no one would. There would be mass panic and evacuations, and the bomb would render a port, financial district, or government complex unusable and uninhabitable for years until scrubbed clean. Economic losses could be in the trillions.

Fourth, terrorists could just attack a nuclear power reactor, fuel storage or other site to trigger a massive radioactive release that could contaminate hundreds or thousands of square miles, like Chernobyl or Fukushima. While nuclear reactors are hardened against outside attack, including by the intentional crash of a medium-sized jet plane, larger planes could destroy them. Or a series of suicide truck bombers. But it might not even take a physical explosion. This week, it was reported the United States and the United Kingdom are to simulate a cyberattack on a nuclear power plant.

Can we prevent these attacks? Yes, by eliminating, reducing and securing all supplies of nuclear materials so that terrorists would find it too difficult to get them. And by reducing and better protecting nuclear reactors and spent nuclear fuel.

Are we doing enough? No. "The capabilities of some terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State, have grown dramatically," says Harvard scholar and former Bush Administration official William Tobey, "In a net calculation, the risk of nuclear terrorism is higher than it was two years ago."

The United States spends about $35 billion on nuclear weapons every year. This year, we will spend $1.8 billion on all our efforts to stop the spread these weapons and stop nuclear terrorism. You don't have to be a nuclear expert to know something is out of whack here.

It is time we put our money where our threats are.

Edition: http://cnn.it/20uy2ua

« Donald Trump Has A Plan for CyberWar
Women in Cybersecurity »

CyberSecurity Jobsite
Perimeter 81

Directory of Suppliers

DigitalStakeout

DigitalStakeout

DigitalStakeout enables cyber security professionals to reduce cyber risk to their organization with proactive security solutions, providing immediate improvement in security posture and ROI.

The PC Support Group

The PC Support Group

A partnership with The PC Support Group delivers improved productivity, reduced costs and protects your business through exceptional IT, telecoms and cybersecurity services.

Clayden Law

Clayden Law

Clayden Law advise global businesses that buy and sell technology products and services. We are experts in information technology, data privacy and cybersecurity law.

ManageEngine

ManageEngine

As the IT management division of Zoho Corporation, ManageEngine prioritizes flexible solutions that work for all businesses, regardless of size or budget.

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North Infosec Testing (North IT)

North IT (North Infosec Testing) are an award-winning provider of web, software, and application penetration testing.

SAMATE

SAMATE

The Software Assurance Metrics And Tool Evaluation project is an inter-agency project between the US Department of Homeland Security and NIST.

Intland Software

Intland Software

Intland offer an integrated Application Lifecycle Management platform that offers all-round Requirements, Development, and Testing & Quality Assurance functionality.

Morphisec

Morphisec

Morphisec's world leading prevention-first software stops ransomware and other advanced attacks from endpoint to the cloud.

CTR Secure Services

CTR Secure Services

CTR Secure Services provides a broad range of security consulting services from asset protection to cyber security.

Security Brokers

Security Brokers

Security Brokers focus services and solutions with a focus on strategic ICT Security and Cyber Defense issues.

Clavister

Clavister

Clavister is a network security vendor delivering a full range of network security solutions for both physical and virtualized environments.

NextVision

NextVision

NextVision is a Cybersecurity and Technology company offering a range of solutions and services for Security, Compliance and IT Infrastructure Management.

Aergo

Aergo

Aergo offers an easier and more proven way to adopt blockchain and transform your business while building on your existing IT and cloud assets.

Cobalt Iron

Cobalt Iron

Cobalt Iron is a global leader in SaaS-based enterprise backup and data protection technology.

AirEye

AirEye

AirEye is a leader in Network Airspace Protection (NAP). Block attacks against your corporate network launched from wireless devices in your corporate network airspace.

Lucata

Lucata

Lucata solutions support groundbreaking graph analytics and improved machine learning for organizations in financial services, cybersecurity, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and more.

Nonprofit Cyber

Nonprofit Cyber

Nonprofit Cyber is a first-of-its-kind coalition of global nonprofit organizations to enhance joint action to improve cybersecurity.

Hub71

Hub71

Hub71 is a world-class tech ecosystem opening doors to global opportunities from an optimal business environment for entrepreneurial-minded innovators.

Cyber Tzar

Cyber Tzar

Cyber Tzar is a new approach at dealing with an old problem; assessing and managing risks to your IT estate.

Vertex Cyber Security

Vertex Cyber Security

Vertex provide Cyber Security Services to small to large businesses including Advise, Consulting, Adding Security Partnership, Penetration Testing, ISO 27001-2 and Audits.

Bastion Technologies

Bastion Technologies

All your cyber defense. One platform. Keep your business assets and employees safe under one roof. Manage your cyber defense quickly, easily & efficiently.